CARPanthers
3-8
21
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
61°F
027
KCChiefs
1-10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
61°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
0
7
21
Chiefs
10
7
7
3
27
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
355
Total Plays
51
67
Yards / Play
7.5
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.28
Passing Yards
220
197
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
19/23(83%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.49
Rushing Yards
165
158
Rush Attempts
22
43
Yards / Rush
7.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.43
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
60%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-4
Sack EPA
-2.21
-1.09
Penalties
7
1
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-4.98
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model65.4%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+5.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,365
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.4
Home QB Adjustment
-15.9
Away QB Adjustment
+3.5
Market Regression
-42.4
Final Difference
-110.7
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
B. Quinn
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
13
19
Passing Yards / Game
11
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27
EPA
EPA / Play
12
31
EPA / Pass
11
32
EPA / Rush
6
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
10
Interceptions / Game
7
31
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
17
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Chiefs Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
18
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
31
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
13
EPA
EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
31
16
EPA / Rush
16
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
15
Interceptions / Game
31
23
Fumbles / Game
28
3
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
7
4th Down Efficiency
19
20
RZ Efficiency
32
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U