CARPanthers
7-3
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
13 mph
16
MIADolphins
5-5
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
3
7
7
20
Dolphins
7
9
0
0
16
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
332
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
4.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.14
Passing Yards
159
280
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.04
Rushing Yards
136
52
Rush Attempts
28
17
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
35%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.66
-2.84
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-15
-30
Sack EPA
-4.80
-4.56
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
56
55
Penalty EPA
-9.26
-6.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-87
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,609
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.4
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
8
Yards / Game
26
20
Passing Yards / Game
25
16
Rushing Yards / Game
12
24
EPA
EPA / Play
13
14
EPA / Pass
15
11
EPA / Rush
5
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
2
21
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Dolphins Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
2
Yards / Game
27
3
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3
EPA
EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
20
5
EPA / Rush
28
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
20
8
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
11
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U