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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ dolphins week 12, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
7-3
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
13 mph
16
MIADolphins
5-5
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
3
7
7
20
Dolphins
7
9
0
0
16

Spread

MIA logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
295
332
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
4.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.14
Passing Yards
159
280
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.04
Rushing Yards
136
52
Rush Attempts
28
17
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
35%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.66
-2.84
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-15
-30
Sack EPA
-4.80
-4.56
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
56
55
Penalty EPA
-9.26
-6.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-89
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.4
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Value
Ptile
09/08
2.2
65
09/15
-4.9
19
09/22
5.0
83
10/06
-9.8
3
10/13
8.8
93
10/20
2.1
65
10/24
5.3
84
11/03
0.3
52
11/10
-7.5
10
11/18
6.8
89
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Value
Ptile
09/08
-3.0
32
09/15
-0.4
47
09/22
-2.8
34
09/30
-3.4
28
10/06
-3.2
29
10/20
-3.0
31
10/27
-8.0
8
10/31
1.0
56
11/11
-1.0
44
11/17
-2.7
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Panthers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
19
8
Yards / Game
26
20
Passing Yards / Game
25
16
Rushing Yards / Game
12
24

EPA

EPA / Play
13
14
EPA / Pass
15
11
EPA / Rush
5
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
2
21
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Dolphins Offense vs Panthers Defense
Dolphins logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
2
Yards / Game
27
3
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3

EPA

EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
20
5
EPA / Rush
28
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
20
8
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
11
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-5
L
L
U
09/15
-1
L
L
O
09/22
38
W
W
U
10/06
-16
L
L
U
10/13
25
W
W
O
10/20
15
W
W
O
10/24
18
W
W
O
11/03
24
W
W
U
11/10
1
W
W
U
11/18
4
W
W
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
13
W
W
U
09/15
4
W
W
O
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/30
-21
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-2
L
L
O
10/27
-10
L
L
U
10/31
2
W
W
P
11/11
-3
L
L
O
11/17
4
W
W
U