CARPanthers
0-1
20
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
028
ATLFalcons
1-0
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
10
0
7
20
Falcons
7
14
0
7
28
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
440
371
Total Plays
67
64
Yards / Play
6.6
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.18
Passing Yards
296
--
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.48
Rushing Yards
144
151
Rush Attempts
25
37
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
58%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.11
-8.00
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-1.84
--
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
35
40
Penalty EPA
-5.49
-4.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model68.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.6
Away QB Adjustment
-20.2
Market Regression
-6.2
Final Difference
134.5
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Delhomme
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-20.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9
EPA
EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
22
24
EPA / Rush
8
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
18
16
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
9
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23
EPA
EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
11
4
EPA / Rush
13
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
18
6
Fumbles / Game
8
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
21
RZ Efficiency
13
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
1-0-9
O/U
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
0-1-9
O/U