CARPanthers
4-12
44
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
038
ATLFalcons
8-8
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Panthers
3
14
14
7
6
44
Falcons
3
21
0
14
0
38
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
537
Total Plays
65
77
Yards / Play
6.5
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.43
+0.24
Passing Yards
--
310
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.61
+0.14
Rushing Yards
155
227
Rush Attempts
30
38
Yards / Rush
5.2
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
31
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
20
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
58%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
83%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
5
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.40
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-2
Sack EPA
--
-1.33
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
30
55
Penalty EPA
-1.37
+0.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+203
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,338
Home Field
+35.0
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.2
Home QB Adjustment
-34.3
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
-22.6
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
M. Penix
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-34.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
3
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
28
28
EPA / Rush
9
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
31
4th Down Efficiency
26
13
RZ Efficiency
7
28
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
10
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
15
31
EPA / Rush
11
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
29
25
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
20
RZ Efficiency
20
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U