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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ giants week 1, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
-
18
TBD
MetLife Stadium
64°F
10 mph
31
NYGGiants
-
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
64°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
13
0
0
16
Giants
7
7
10
7
31

Spread

NYG logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
237
376
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
3.8
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.07
Passing Yards
148
258
Comp/Att
14/35(40%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.15
Rushing Yards
89
118
Rush Attempts
24
36
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
20%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
5
4
Interceptions
3
3
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-22.24
-14.54
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-34
-5
Sack EPA
-8.36
-1.35
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
63
95
Penalty EPA
-4.36
-6.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+5.0
Away QB Adjustment
-5.0
Market Regression
-11.2
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

M. Moore headshot

M. Moore

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Value
Ptile
12/16
3.9
77
12/22
-5.5
16
12/30
1.4
61
12/06
-2.6
34
12/13
-1.8
39
12/20
5.1
83
12/27
3.7
73
01/03
-0.8
45
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Value
Ptile
10/25
-7.7
8
11/01
-1.6
40
11/08
1.6
60
11/22
6.8
88
11/26
-3.5
28
12/06
-0.6
46
12/13
10.8
98
12/21
6.5
87
12/27
-0.9
44
01/03
-5.1
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Giants Defense
Panthers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
32
17
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
30
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8

EPA

EPA / Play
32
3
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
32
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
31
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
30
1
Turnover EPA / Game
4
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
1
4th Down Efficiency
18
21
RZ Efficiency
32
18
Giants Offense vs Panthers Defense
Giants logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
25
Yards / Game
4
17
Passing Yards / Game
32
21
Rushing Yards / Game
6
23

EPA

EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
27
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
31
11
Fumbles / Game
31
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
14
4th Down Efficiency
32
12
RZ Efficiency
11
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
13
W
W
O
11/08
-10
L
W
U
11/15
9
W
W
O
11/19
-7
L
L
U
11/29
-11
L
L
U
12/06
10
W
W
U
12/13
-10
L
W
U
12/20
19
W
W
U
12/27
32
W
W
O
01/03
13
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-7
L
L
U
11/01
-23
L
L
O
11/08
-1
L
L
U
11/22
3
W
L
O
11/26
-20
L
L
U
12/06
7
W
W
O
12/13
-7
L
L
O
12/21
33
W
W
O
12/27
-32
L
L
O
01/03
-37
L
L
O