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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ giants week 2, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CAR logo
CARPanthers
0-1
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0
19
NYGGiants
1-0
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
6
7
3
16
Giants
6
0
7
6
19

Spread

NYG logo
+1

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
275
265
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
5.1
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.08
Passing Yards
129
162
Comp/Att
14/29(48%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.35
-0.08
Rushing Yards
146
103
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.33
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
17%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.08
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-14
Sack EPA
-3.04
-4.45
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
38
62
Penalty EPA
-4.41
-7.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model47.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,375
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+50.5
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.9
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
-6.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
18.9
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
Value
Ptile
10/17
-3.8
25
10/31
-3.2
29
11/07
-0.5
49
11/14
-7.8
9
11/21
-8.4
6
11/28
-3.4
28
12/12
1.5
64
12/25
-10.4
3
01/03
-13.7
1
09/11
-2.6
31
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
09/26
-0.7
47
10/03
9.8
96
10/10
-6.1
14
10/17
-10.5
3
10/24
0.2
54
11/01
-3.1
31
11/07
-4.2
24
11/22
-6.5
12
11/28
-0.8
47
09/11
-2.2
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Giants Defense
Panthers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
19
22
Yards / Game
29
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
10
28

EPA

EPA / Play
20
31
EPA / Pass
24
21
EPA / Rush
9
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
5
Interceptions / Game
15
32
Fumbles / Game
7
3
Turnover EPA / Game
19
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
5
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
12
10
Giants Offense vs Panthers Defense
Giants logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
17
Yards / Game
19
22
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18

EPA

EPA / Play
8
15
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
3
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
5
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-18
L
L
U
11/14
24
W
W
O
11/21
-6
L
L
O
11/28
-23
L
L
O
12/12
-8
L
L
O
12/19
-17
L
L
O
12/26
-26
L
L
U
01/02
-8
L
L
U
01/09
-24
L
L
O
09/11
-2
L
L
O
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
7
W
W
U
11/22
-20
L
L
U
11/28
6
W
W
U
12/05
-11
L
L
U
12/12
-16
L
L
O
12/19
-15
L
L
U
12/26
-24
L
L
O
01/02
-26
L
L
U
01/09
-15
L
L
U
09/11
1
W
W
U