CARPanthers
2-7
35
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
049
DETLions
6-3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
10
17
0
8
35
Lions
0
14
14
21
49
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
411
495
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
6.2
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.26
Passing Yards
274
326
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
28/36(78%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.49
Rushing Yards
137
169
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
5.3
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
29
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
30%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
6
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
4
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-15.67
-13.29
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-9
Sack EPA
-1.52
-2.57
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
70
56
Penalty EPA
-9.69
-12.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
+31.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.6
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
24
Yards / Game
7
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
1
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
17
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
18
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
7
14
Lions Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
4
27
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
30
24
EPA
EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
7
32
EPA / Rush
14
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
20
20
Fumbles / Game
9
12
Turnover EPA / Game
16
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
26
4th Down Efficiency
6
7
RZ Efficiency
3
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U