CARPanthers
6-3
19
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
020
DETLions
3-6
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
0
0
12
19
Lions
7
3
3
7
20
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
309
Total Plays
58
64
Yards / Play
6.7
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.02
Passing Yards
331
215
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.08
Rushing Yards
56
94
Rush Attempts
16
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
45%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.92
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-5
Sack EPA
-6.30
-1.17
Penalties
2
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model60.7%
Spread Pick
Lions+4.0
Expected Value
+10.2%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+77.7
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.1
Home QB Adjustment
-12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+21.6
Market Regression
+1.7
Final Difference
-75.6
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
17
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
11
EPA
EPA / Play
9
15
EPA / Pass
14
24
EPA / Rush
4
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
25
29
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
26
11
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Lions Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
24
16
Passing Yards / Game
20
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12
EPA
EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
22
27
EPA / Rush
25
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
26
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
18
10
Turnover EPA / Game
17
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
9
18
RZ Efficiency
25
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U