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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ lions week 11, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
6-3
19
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
20
DETLions
3-6
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
0
0
12
19
Lions
7
3
3
7
20

Spread

DET logo
+4

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
387
309
Total Plays
58
64
Yards / Play
6.7
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.02
Passing Yards
331
215
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.08
Rushing Yards
56
94
Rush Attempts
16
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
45%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.92
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-5
Sack EPA
-6.30
-1.17
Penalties
2
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model59.5%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.2%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+78.7
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.1
Home QB Adjustment
-12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+21.6
Market Regression
-2.4
Final Difference
-67.0
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
Value
Ptile
01/07
4.3
82
09/09
0.3
49
09/16
8.4
93
09/23
5.4
82
10/07
-0.9
41
10/14
5.0
79
10/21
5.1
80
10/28
10.3
97
11/04
2.1
63
11/08
-2.0
33
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
Value
Ptile
12/31
5.1
85
09/10
-4.8
19
09/16
6.8
89
09/23
3.8
73
09/30
4.7
78
10/07
-2.7
29
10/21
3.7
73
10/28
2.6
67
11/04
-9.9
3
11/11
-5.2
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Lions Defense
Panthers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
17
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
11

EPA

EPA / Play
9
15
EPA / Pass
14
24
EPA / Rush
4
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
25
29
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
26
11
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Lions Offense vs Panthers Defense
Lions logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
24
16
Passing Yards / Game
20
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12

EPA

EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
22
27
EPA / Rush
25
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
26
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
18
10
Turnover EPA / Game
17
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
9
18
RZ Efficiency
25
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
-5
L
W
O
09/09
8
W
W
U
09/16
-7
L
L
O
09/23
10
W
W
O
10/07
2
W
L
O
10/14
-6
L
L
U
10/21
4
W
W
U
10/28
15
W
W
O
11/04
14
W
W
O
11/08
-31
L
L
O
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
24
W
W
O
09/10
-31
L
L
O
09/16
-3
L
W
O
09/23
16
W
W
U
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
8
W
W
O
10/21
11
W
W
O
10/28
-14
L
L
U
11/04
-15
L
L
U
11/11
-12
L
L
O