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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ packers week 15, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
4-9
16
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
5 mph
24
GBPackers
10-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
0
7
6
16
Packers
7
14
0
3
24

Spread

CAR logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
53

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
364
291
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
5.6
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.09
Passing Yards
249
96
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
3.3
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.24
Rushing Yards
115
195
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
4.3
7.2
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
20%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.01
--
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-9
-47
Sack EPA
-2.66
-6.94
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
66
50
Penalty EPA
-6.48
-1.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model77.2%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+160
Home nfelo
1,598
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+11.8
Home QB Adjustment
+36.8
Away QB Adjustment
+25.0
Market Regression
-1.7
Final Difference
212.3
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
Value
Ptile
09/27
2.0
58
10/04
6.4
86
10/11
4.7
77
10/18
-5.9
12
10/25
5.4
80
10/29
-5.7
12
11/08
9.8
96
11/15
0.0
46
11/29
-0.6
42
12/13
3.8
72
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+36.8
Value
Ptile
10/05
9.0
95
10/18
-12.8
1
10/25
6.5
86
11/01
5.9
83
11/05
9.8
96
11/15
4.1
74
11/22
6.3
85
11/29
8.1
92
12/06
4.7
77
12/13
8.9
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Packers Defense
Panthers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
15
Yards / Game
21
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
19
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10

EPA

EPA / Play
16
17
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
13
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
27
15
Fumbles / Game
12
23
Turnover EPA / Game
21
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
19
RZ Efficiency
28
13
Packers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Packers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
18
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
24
14
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18

EPA

EPA / Play
1
25
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
5
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
16
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
7
1
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
31
4th Down Efficiency
9
21
RZ Efficiency
1
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
10
W
W
U
10/11
7
W
W
U
10/18
-7
L
L
U
10/25
-3
L
W
O
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/15
-23
L
L
O
11/22
20
W
W
U
11/29
-1
L
W
O
12/13
-5
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
14
W
W
U
10/18
-28
L
L
U
10/25
15
W
W
U
11/01
-6
L
L
O
11/05
17
W
W
O
11/15
4
W
L
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
16
W
W
O
12/06
14
W
W
U
12/13
7
W
L
U