CARPanthers
4-9
16
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
5 mph
24
GBPackers
10-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
0
7
6
16
Packers
7
14
0
3
24
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
291
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
5.6
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.09
Passing Yards
249
96
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
3.3
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.24
Rushing Yards
115
195
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
4.3
7.2
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
20%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.01
--
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-9
-47
Sack EPA
-2.66
-6.94
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
66
50
Penalty EPA
-6.48
-1.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
Panthers+9.5
Expected Value
+1.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+11.8
Home QB Adjustment
+36.8
Away QB Adjustment
+25.0
Market Regression
-1.6
Final Difference
212.3
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+36.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
15
Yards / Game
21
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
19
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10
EPA
EPA / Play
16
17
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
13
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
27
15
Fumbles / Game
12
23
Turnover EPA / Game
21
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
19
RZ Efficiency
28
13
Packers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
18
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
24
14
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18
EPA
EPA / Play
1
25
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
5
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
16
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
7
1
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
31
4th Down Efficiency
9
21
RZ Efficiency
1
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U