CARPanthers
5-7
10
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
4 mph
20
NEPatriots
7-5
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
0
0
3
10
Patriots
0
7
7
6
20
Spread
+13
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
377
Total Plays
56
72
Yards / Play
5.4
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.05
Passing Yards
179
--
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.11
Rushing Yards
126
185
Rush Attempts
24
40
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
23%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-11.46
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-2.39
--
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
92
25
Penalty EPA
-9.94
-2.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+291
Home nfelo
1,663
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+42.1
Home QB Adjustment
+15.6
Away QB Adjustment
-26.5
Market Regression
-34.9
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-26.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
19
9
Passing Yards / Game
22
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
19
EPA
EPA / Play
22
10
EPA / Pass
22
14
EPA / Rush
8
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
29
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
9
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
21
14
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Patriots Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
9
Yards / Game
4
8
Passing Yards / Game
17
3
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23
EPA
EPA / Play
6
6
EPA / Pass
9
4
EPA / Rush
11
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
15
6
Fumbles / Game
18
2
Turnover EPA / Game
19
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
13
21
RZ Efficiency
11
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U