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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ raiders week 3, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CAR logo
CARPanthers
0-2
36
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
22
OAKRaiders
1-1
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
14
6
9
36
Raiders
7
0
0
15
22

Spread

CAR logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
437
333
Total Plays
71
60
Yards / Play
6.2
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.10
Passing Yards
306
278
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.03
Rushing Yards
131
55
Rush Attempts
31
16
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.13
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-20
Sack EPA
-3.36
-4.36
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
51
54
Penalty EPA
-5.27
-6.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,353
Home Field
+55.2
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.4
Net QB Adjustment
-57.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+56.8
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+56.8
Value
Ptile
11/07
-5.2
17
11/13
-6.3
12
11/20
5.1
85
11/27
0.1
54
12/05
1.1
60
12/18
-2.9
29
12/24
-5.7
14
01/01
-5.8
14
01/08
-2.4
34
09/24
3.0
70
G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
11/12
-2.3
33
11/26
-2.8
31
12/03
2.1
64
12/10
-1.9
36
12/16
1.8
61
12/24
-9.3
4
12/31
0.1
50
01/06
-4.0
24
09/08
-2.0
34
09/15
-0.2
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Panthers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
23
25
Yards / Game
29
12
Passing Yards / Game
30
27
Rushing Yards / Game
16
12

EPA

EPA / Play
24
12
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
9
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
9
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
13
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
17
4th Down Efficiency
26
31
RZ Efficiency
7
22
Raiders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Raiders logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
32
Yards / Game
27
32
Passing Yards / Game
9
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
32

EPA

EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
32
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
21
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
3
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
20
RZ Efficiency
26
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-23
L
L
P
11/26
-7
L
L
U
12/03
-3
L
W
O
12/10
-22
L
L
U
12/17
2
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
O
12/31
-26
L
L
U
01/07
-9
L
L
U
09/08
-37
L
L
O
09/15
-23
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
4
W
W
U
11/19
-7
L
W
U
11/26
-14
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
P
U
12/14
42
W
W
O
12/25
6
W
W
U
12/31
-3
L
W
O
01/07
13
W
W
O
09/08
-12
L
L
U
09/15
3
W
W
O