CARPanthers
1-5
10
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
020
LARRams
3-4
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
3
0
7
10
Rams
0
10
0
10
20
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
201
246
Total Plays
57
63
Yards / Play
3.5
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.14
Passing Yards
176
184
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.20
Rushing Yards
25
62
Rush Attempts
17
29
Yards / Rush
1.5
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.59
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.63
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-7
Sack EPA
-4.60
-2.68
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
30
65
Penalty EPA
-6.31
+0.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,362
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
+6.5
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
11
Yards / Game
32
18
Passing Yards / Game
30
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
17
EPA
EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
32
7
EPA / Rush
32
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
18
Interceptions / Game
27
19
Fumbles / Game
30
10
Turnover EPA / Game
4
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
3
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
32
12
Rams Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
16
21
Rushing Yards / Game
25
23
EPA
EPA / Play
30
17
EPA / Pass
26
12
EPA / Rush
29
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
2
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
19
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
14
4th Down Efficiency
11
12
RZ Efficiency
31
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Rams
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U