CARPanthers
0-3
14
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
016
NOSaints
2-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
7
0
14
Saints
0
10
3
3
16
Spread
+12.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
251
383
Total Plays
47
79
Yards / Play
5.3
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.05
Passing Yards
133
262
Comp/Att
11/21(52%)
33/48(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.01
Rushing Yards
118
121
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
27
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-4.52
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-13
Sack EPA
-4.18
-2.57
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
66
36
Penalty EPA
-4.06
-2.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model83.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+223
Home nfelo
1,586
Away nfelo
1,401
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+19.6
Away QB Adjustment
+26.2
Market Regression
-38.1
Final Difference
276.2
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
J. Clausen
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
+26.2
Value
Ptile
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
10
Yards / Game
32
9
Passing Yards / Game
30
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
18
EPA
EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
32
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
30
Interceptions / Game
27
32
Fumbles / Game
30
6
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
7
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
32
5
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
25
Yards / Game
5
17
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23
EPA
EPA / Play
8
17
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
21
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
19
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U