CARPanthers
3-4
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
030
NOSaints
7-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
14
3
3
0
20
Saints
0
6
14
4
24
Spread
+11.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
371
414
Total Plays
71
59
Yards / Play
5.2
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.00
Passing Yards
189
330
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.06
Rushing Yards
182
84
Rush Attempts
39
23
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
25%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-12.80
-11.95
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-3.27
-5.51
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
37
55
Penalty EPA
-7.12
-5.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+280
Home nfelo
1,682
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+27.3
Home QB Adjustment
+10.9
Away QB Adjustment
-16.4
Market Regression
-70.6
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
J. Delhomme
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-16.4
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
22
EPA
EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
22
7
EPA / Rush
8
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
18
3
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
9
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
3
Rushing Yards / Game
10
23
EPA
EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
7
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
5
6
Fumbles / Game
28
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
21
RZ Efficiency
4
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-3-3
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-2-3
O/U