CARPanthers
11-0
41
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
038
NOSaints
4-7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
13
14
14
41
Saints
8
0
8
14
30
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
497
336
Total Plays
76
59
Yards / Play
6.5
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.01
Passing Yards
322
264
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.36
-0.00
Rushing Yards
175
72
Rush Attempts
34
15
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
33
21
Passing 1st downs
18
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
6
3
3rd Down %
38%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
8
10
Red Zone %
83%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-18.99
-1.87
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-18
Sack EPA
-1.58
-4.11
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
87
104
Penalty EPA
-6.66
-10.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-145
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+65.3
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
-27.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.2
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
-20.1
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+20.1
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
11
31
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
7
32
EPA / Rush
3
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
24
Interceptions / Game
8
26
Fumbles / Game
26
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
9
31
RZ Efficiency
1
32
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
6
Yards / Game
1
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
20
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
8
2
EPA / Pass
5
2
EPA / Rush
14
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
19
Interceptions / Game
11
1
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
9
4th Down Efficiency
3
25
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U