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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ saints week 14, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
9-3
13
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
31
NOSaints
9-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
6
0
0
7
13
Saints
0
21
3
7
31

Spread

NO logo
-3

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
239
373
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
3.9
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.21
Passing Yards
111
304
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.32
Rushing Yards
128
69
Rush Attempts
23
17
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
9
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-49
-9
Sack EPA
-8.53
-2.44
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
35
45
Penalty EPA
-3.56
-5.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,618
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.4
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Value
Ptile
09/22
5.0
83
10/06
-9.8
3
10/13
8.8
93
10/20
2.1
65
10/24
5.3
84
11/03
0.3
52
11/10
-7.5
10
11/18
6.8
89
11/24
-0.5
47
12/01
6.9
90
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Value
Ptile
09/22
5.9
86
09/30
12.2
98
10/06
7.6
91
10/13
-0.6
46
10/27
9.0
94
11/03
1.3
60
11/10
13.0
99
11/17
3.4
73
11/21
2.9
69
12/02
0.1
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
20

EPA

EPA / Play
13
11
EPA / Pass
15
6
EPA / Rush
5
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
14
28
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
3

EPA

EPA / Play
5
6
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
15
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
2
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
12
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
38
W
W
U
10/06
-16
L
L
U
10/13
25
W
W
O
10/20
15
W
W
O
10/24
18
W
W
O
11/03
24
W
W
U
11/10
1
W
W
U
11/18
4
W
W
U
11/24
4
W
L
U
12/01
21
W
W
U
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
24
W
W
U
09/30
21
W
W
O
10/06
8
W
W
U
10/13
-3
L
L
O
10/27
18
W
W
O
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
32
W
W
O
11/17
3
W
L
U
11/21
4
W
L
U
12/02
-27
L
L
U