CARPanthers
9-3
13
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
9-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
6
0
0
7
13
Saints
0
21
3
7
31
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
239
373
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
3.9
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.21
Passing Yards
111
304
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.32
Rushing Yards
128
69
Rush Attempts
23
17
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
9
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-49
-9
Sack EPA
-8.53
-2.44
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
35
45
Penalty EPA
-3.56
-5.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,623
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.4
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
20
EPA
EPA / Play
13
11
EPA / Pass
15
6
EPA / Rush
5
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
14
28
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
3
EPA
EPA / Play
5
6
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
15
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
2
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
12
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U