CARPanthers
3-8
41
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
010
NOSaints
5-7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
17
7
14
3
41
Saints
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
+9
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
497
310
Total Plays
73
68
Yards / Play
6.8
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.31
Passing Yards
--
218
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
29/49(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.40
Rushing Yards
271
92
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
6.8
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.17
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-4.20
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
55
30
Penalty EPA
-2.56
-5.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model78.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+262
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,350
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.1
Home QB Adjustment
+17.0
Away QB Adjustment
+27.1
Market Regression
-9.4
Final Difference
226.1
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+27.1
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
28
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29
EPA
EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
11
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
23
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
14
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
25
31
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
1
6
Passing Yards / Game
5
19
Rushing Yards / Game
13
11
EPA
EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
8
14
EPA / Rush
7
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
25
15
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
13
14
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
1-8-1
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U