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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ saints week 14, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CAR logo
CARPanthers
3-8
41
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
10
NOSaints
5-7
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
17
7
14
3
41
Saints
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

CAR logo
+9

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
497
310
Total Plays
73
68
Yards / Play
6.8
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.31
Passing Yards
--
218
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
29/49(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.40
Rushing Yards
271
92
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
6.8
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.17
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-4.20
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
55
30
Penalty EPA
-2.56
-5.17

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model78.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+261
Home nfelo
1,573
Away nfelo
1,346
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.1
Home QB Adjustment
+17.0
Away QB Adjustment
+27.1
Market Regression
-9.5
Final Difference
225.9
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+27.1
Value
Ptile
09/21
0.9
56
09/28
-1.4
40
10/05
-1.5
39
10/12
12.3
99
10/19
-2.4
33
10/26
-7.1
10
10/30
-7.4
9
11/10
-9.5
4
11/16
0.2
51
11/30
-4.7
22
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
Value
Ptile
09/21
5.8
85
09/28
5.4
84
10/05
0.4
52
10/19
5.8
84
10/26
9.1
95
10/30
0.0
49
11/09
1.3
59
11/16
6.6
88
11/24
8.1
92
11/30
8.4
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
19
28
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29

EPA

EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
11
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
23
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
14
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
25
31
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
1
6
Passing Yards / Game
5
19
Rushing Yards / Game
13
11

EPA

EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
8
14
EPA / Rush
7
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
25
15
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
13
14
RZ Efficiency
7
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

1-8-1
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-18
L
L
O
09/28
-28
L
L
O
10/05
7
W
W
O
10/12
0
T
W
O
10/19
-21
L
L
O
10/26
-4
L
W
U
10/30
-18
L
L
U
11/10
-24
L
L
O
11/16
-2
L
W
U
11/30
-18
L
L
O
NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
11
W
W
U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/05
6
W
L
O
10/19
-1
L
W
O
10/26
21
W
W
O
10/30
18
W
W
U
11/09
-3
L
L
O
11/16
-17
L
L
U
11/24
-7
L
L
O
11/30
3
W
W
O