CARPanthers
1-11
6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
028
NOSaints
5-7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
3
3
0
6
Saints
0
8
0
14
22
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
207
Total Plays
79
52
Yards / Play
3.8
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.20
Passing Yards
99
110
Comp/Att
13/36(36%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
2.8
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.87
-0.37
Rushing Yards
204
97
Rush Attempts
39
25
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
4
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
20
10
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.61
-2.82
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-38
-9
Sack EPA
-12.43
-3.02
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
27
30
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-5.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model69.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+180
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,354
Home Field
+32.6
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
-20.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
+32.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.9
Away QB Adjustment
-37.4
Market Regression
-14.6
Final Difference
141.0
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-37.4
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
6
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
20
22
EPA
EPA / Play
29
3
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
18
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
11
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
3
RZ Efficiency
21
9
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
29
Yards / Game
13
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
23
EPA
EPA / Play
19
27
EPA / Pass
14
17
EPA / Rush
24
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
10
32
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
14
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Saints
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U