CARPanthers
6-9
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
045
NOSaints
12-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
10
0
0
17
Saints
14
10
14
7
45
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
617
Total Plays
51
73
Yards / Play
5.9
8.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.35
Passing Yards
137
--
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
31/38(82%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.59
Rushing Yards
164
208
Rush Attempts
24
35
Yards / Rush
6.8
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.42
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
33
Passing 1st downs
9
23
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
0%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
5
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.36
-7.60
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-1.97
--
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-5.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model78.1%
Spread Pick
Saints-7.0
Expected Value
+16.3%
Cover Probability
57.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+262
Home nfelo
1,695
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+36.8
Away QB Adjustment
+38.5
Market Regression
-4.1
Final Difference
220.9
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+38.5
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+36.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
1
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
29
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
7
30
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
24
EPA
EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
2
32
EPA / Rush
5
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
6
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U