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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ saints week 17, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CAR logo
CARPanthers
6-9
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
45
NOSaints
12-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
10
0
0
17
Saints
14
10
14
7
45

Spread

NO logo
-7

Total

OVER
54.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
301
617
Total Plays
51
73
Yards / Play
5.9
8.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.35
Passing Yards
137
--
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
31/38(82%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.59
Rushing Yards
164
208
Rush Attempts
24
35
Yards / Rush
6.8
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.42
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
21
33
Passing 1st downs
9
23
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
0%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
5
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.36
-7.60
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-1.97
--
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-5.44

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model78.4%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.3%
Cover Probability
57.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+267
Home nfelo
1,696
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+36.8
Away QB Adjustment
+38.5
Market Regression
-9.3
Final Difference
224.3
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+38.5
Value
Ptile
10/16
-1.7
38
10/23
6.4
87
10/30
7.0
90
11/13
-4.7
20
11/20
1.7
64
11/27
2.5
70
12/04
7.4
92
12/11
-1.1
43
12/18
4.3
78
12/24
9.0
96
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+36.8
Value
Ptile
10/16
3.0
73
10/23
12.3
98
10/30
-5.3
17
11/06
6.8
90
11/13
8.2
94
11/28
13.9
99
12/04
8.7
95
12/11
7.9
93
12/18
15.9
100
12/26
4.8
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11

EPA

EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
1
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
29
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
7
30
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
24

EPA

EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
2
32
EPA / Rush
5
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
6
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/23
13
W
W
O
10/30
-3
L
L
U
11/13
-27
L
L
U
11/20
-14
L
L
O
11/27
8
W
W
U
12/04
19
W
W
O
12/11
-8
L
L
O
12/18
15
W
W
U
12/24
32
W
W
O
NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-6
L
L
U
10/23
55
W
W
O
10/30
-10
L
L
O
11/06
11
W
W
U
11/13
3
W
W
U
11/28
25
W
W
O
12/04
14
W
W
U
12/11
5
W
W
U
12/18
22
W
W
O
12/26
29
W
W
O