CARPanthers
6-9
44
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
038
NOSaints
7-8
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
10
14
17
44
Saints
0
11
7
14
32
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
530
441
Total Plays
74
63
Yards / Play
7.2
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.10
Passing Yards
257
378
Comp/Att
17/34(50%)
29/43(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.29
Rushing Yards
273
63
Rush Attempts
39
18
Yards / Rush
7.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
22
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
63%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
10
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
57%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.41
-3.93
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-18
Sack EPA
-1.14
-3.68
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
36
--
Penalty EPA
-2.61
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+112
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-26.9
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+18.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.7
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32
EPA
EPA / Play
12
30
EPA / Pass
11
29
EPA / Rush
6
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
26
Interceptions / Game
7
15
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
25
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
16
4th Down Efficiency
27
20
RZ Efficiency
10
22
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
2
10
Passing Yards / Game
3
21
Rushing Yards / Game
25
13
EPA
EPA / Play
8
22
EPA / Pass
8
16
EPA / Rush
12
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
28
23
Fumbles / Game
3
3
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U