CARPanthers
6-2
21
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
40°F
4 mph
52
PITSteelers
5-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
40°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
0
7
21
Steelers
15
10
14
7
46
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
242
457
Total Plays
56
58
Yards / Play
4.3
7.9
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.47
Passing Yards
147
319
Comp/Att
23/29(79%)
23/27(85%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
11.8
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.94
Rushing Yards
95
138
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.20
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-46
-6
Sack EPA
-8.11
-1.17
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
42
--
Penalty EPA
-7.33
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+57.8
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
+28.9
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+28.9
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
9
6
Passing Yards / Game
17
27
Rushing Yards / Game
4
5
EPA
EPA / Play
9
20
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
4
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
25
27
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
19
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
9
4th Down Efficiency
26
12
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Steelers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
20
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
31
12
EPA
EPA / Play
8
27
EPA / Pass
4
27
EPA / Rush
15
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
18
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
20
4th Down Efficiency
6
18
RZ Efficiency
2
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
6-3-1
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U