CARPanthers
2-12
3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
27°F
11 mph
27
PITSteelers
10-4
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
27°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
0
0
3
3
Steelers
3
17
7
0
27
Spread
-14.5
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
119
408
Total Plays
49
68
Yards / Play
2.4
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.50
-0.02
Passing Yards
45
293
Comp/Att
10/23(43%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
2.0
9.2
EPA / Pass
-0.63
+0.25
Rushing Yards
74
115
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
7
22
Passing 1st downs
3
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
23%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.93
-10.45
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-27
-27
Sack EPA
-8.35
-3.30
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
62
--
Penalty EPA
-6.51
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+363
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,304
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.5
Home QB Adjustment
+40.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
+9.6
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
J. Clausen
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+40.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
2
Yards / Game
32
2
Passing Yards / Game
30
17
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1
EPA
EPA / Play
32
2
EPA / Pass
32
4
EPA / Rush
32
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
8
Interceptions / Game
27
10
Fumbles / Game
30
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
5
4th Down Efficiency
18
25
RZ Efficiency
32
4
Steelers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
14
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
21
Rushing Yards / Game
11
23
EPA
EPA / Play
13
17
EPA / Pass
9
12
EPA / Rush
10
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
18
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
14
4th Down Efficiency
27
12
RZ Efficiency
15
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U