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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ titans week 10, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
8-0
27
TBD
Nissan Stadium
57°F
2 mph
10
TENTitans
2-6
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
57°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
3
10
27
Titans
7
3
0
0
10

Spread

CAR logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
303
242
Total Plays
64
46
Yards / Play
4.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.17
Passing Yards
184
178
Comp/Att
21/25(84%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.01
Rushing Yards
119
64
Rush Attempts
34
21
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
24
11
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
54%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
60%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.04
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-33
-7
Sack EPA
-7.28
-1.39
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
45
30
Penalty EPA
-3.40
-2.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-73
Home nfelo
1,390
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+50.7
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.1
Net QB Adjustment
+13.0
Home QB Adjustment
+29.4
Away QB Adjustment
+16.5
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Value
Ptile
01/03
-0.0
49
01/10
1.6
62
09/13
-3.6
24
09/20
3.2
74
09/27
8.0
93
10/04
-1.0
44
10/18
-1.5
39
10/25
-3.1
28
11/02
-0.9
45
11/08
8.8
95
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+29.4
Value
Ptile
09/13
5.1
82
09/20
-2.8
30
09/27
0.4
53
10/11
-0.4
48
10/18
-7.9
4
11/08
10.8
98

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Titans Defense
Panthers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
2
18

EPA

EPA / Play
4
23
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
3
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
26
29
Turnover EPA / Game
22
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Titans Offense vs Panthers Defense
Titans logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
6
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
25
4

EPA

EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
30
2
EPA / Rush
25
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
24
1
Fumbles / Game
32
3
Turnover EPA / Game
5
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
25
RZ Efficiency
5
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
11
W
W
O
01/10
-14
L
L
O
09/13
11
W
W
U
09/20
7
W
W
P
09/27
5
W
L
O
10/04
14
W
W
O
10/18
4
W
W
O
10/25
11
W
W
U
11/02
3
W
L
O
11/08
8
W
W
O
TEN logo

Titans

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-8
L
L
U
12/28
-17
L
L
U
09/13
28
W
W
O
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
-2
L
W
O
10/11
-1
L
L
U
10/18
-28
L
L
O
10/25
-3
L
W
U
11/01
-14
L
L
U
11/08
6
W
W
O