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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ vikings week 13, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
3-7
13
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
12°F
17 mph
31
MINVikings
4-7
MIN logo
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
12°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
3
7
0
13
Vikings
8
8
0
3
19

Spread

MIN logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
348
210
Total Plays
72
48
Yards / Play
4.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.04
Passing Yards
170
118
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
15/21(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.08
Rushing Yards
178
92
Rush Attempts
33
24
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
23
12
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.71
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-24
-20
Sack EPA
-5.45
-5.53
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
35
25
Penalty EPA
-2.83
-2.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,357
Home Field
+24.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-15.7
Home QB Adjustment
+17.2
Away QB Adjustment
+32.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.9
Value
Ptile
09/14
1.1
58
09/21
0.9
56
09/28
-1.4
40
10/05
-1.5
39
10/12
12.3
99
10/19
-2.4
33
10/26
-7.1
10
10/30
-7.4
9
11/10
-9.5
4
11/16
0.2
51
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
Value
Ptile
09/28
6.0
86
10/12
-13.6
0
10/19
-8.6
7
10/26
-1.2
42
11/02
1.5
61
11/16
-5.5
17
11/23
-0.1
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Panthers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
19
11
Yards / Game
15
14
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
7
24

EPA

EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
11
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
5
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
14
27
Turnover EPA / Game
12
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
25
18
Vikings Offense vs Panthers Defense
Vikings logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
19
Rushing Yards / Game
14
11

EPA

EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
24
14
EPA / Rush
2
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
1
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
21
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
13
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

2-7-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
17
W
W
U
09/21
-18
L
L
O
09/28
-28
L
L
O
10/05
7
W
W
O
10/12
0
T
W
O
10/19
-21
L
L
O
10/26
-4
L
W
U
10/30
-18
L
L
U
11/10
-24
L
L
O
11/16
-2
L
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-23
L
L
U
09/21
-11
L
L
U
09/28
13
W
W
O
10/02
-32
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
-1
L
W
U
10/26
6
W
W
U
11/02
3
W
W
O
11/16
-8
L
L
U
11/23
-3
L
W
U