CARPanthers
3-7
13
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
12°F
17 mph
31
MINVikings
4-7
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
12°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
3
7
0
13
Vikings
8
8
0
3
19
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
348
210
Total Plays
72
48
Yards / Play
4.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.04
Passing Yards
170
118
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
15/21(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.08
Rushing Yards
178
92
Rush Attempts
33
24
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
12
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.71
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-24
-20
Sack EPA
-5.45
-5.53
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
35
25
Penalty EPA
-2.83
-2.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,360
Home Field
+24.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-15.7
Home QB Adjustment
+17.2
Away QB Adjustment
+32.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.9
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
11
Yards / Game
15
14
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
7
24
EPA
EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
5
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
14
27
Turnover EPA / Game
12
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
25
18
Vikings Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
19
Rushing Yards / Game
14
11
EPA
EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
24
14
EPA / Rush
2
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
1
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
21
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
13
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-7-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U