NEPatriots
1-2
13
TBD
Levi's Stadium
71°F
5 mph
30
SF49ers
1-2
TBD
Levi's Stadium
71°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
7
3
13
49ers
6
8
7
3
24
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
431
Total Plays
62
60
Yards / Play
3.4
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.03
Passing Yards
140
283
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
10.5
EPA / Pass
-0.49
+0.26
Rushing Yards
73
148
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.57
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-17.23
-10.03
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-25
-5
Sack EPA
-9.64
-1.29
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
20
43
Penalty EPA
-1.51
-2.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model83.5%
Spread Pick
49ers-10.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+319
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+71.2
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+15.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
+2.2
Final Difference
281.3
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
29
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18
EPA
EPA / Play
28
30
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
25
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
21
Interceptions / Game
11
18
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
25
4th Down Efficiency
14
26
RZ Efficiency
30
31
49ers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
21
Yards / Game
4
21
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22
EPA
EPA / Play
11
26
EPA / Pass
9
30
EPA / Rush
13
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
6
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
7
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
27
4th Down Efficiency
23
11
RZ Efficiency
14
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U