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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ 49ers week 4, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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NE logo
NEPatriots
1-2
13
TBD
Levi's Stadium
71°F
5 mph
30
SF49ers
1-2
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
71°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
7
3
13
49ers
6
8
7
3
24

Spread

SF logo
-10.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
213
431
Total Plays
62
60
Yards / Play
3.4
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.03
Passing Yards
140
283
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
10.5
EPA / Pass
-0.49
+0.26
Rushing Yards
73
148
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.57
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-17.23
-10.03
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-25
-5
Sack EPA
-9.64
-1.29
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
20
43
Penalty EPA
-1.51
-2.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-12.0

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model83.4%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers-10.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+318
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+71.2
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+15.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
+2.2
Final Difference
280.9
Model Spread
-12.0

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Value
Ptile
10/09
1.4
63
10/16
-8.3
5
10/23
-1.8
40
10/31
5.1
85
11/13
-1.0
46
11/20
10.3
97
11/27
-2.6
30
09/08
-2.6
30
09/15
-4.7
18
09/19
-7.3
7
B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Value
Ptile
12/10
2.9
69
12/17
5.8
85
12/25
-8.3
8
12/31
4.3
77
01/20
0.7
53
01/28
0.8
54
02/11
2.2
65
09/09
0.6
52
09/15
-1.2
40
09/22
8.2
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs 49ers Defense
Patriots logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
29
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18

EPA

EPA / Play
28
30
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
25
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
21
Interceptions / Game
11
18
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
25
4th Down Efficiency
14
26
RZ Efficiency
30
31
49ers Offense vs Patriots Defense
49ers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
14
21
Yards / Game
4
21
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22

EPA

EPA / Play
11
26
EPA / Pass
9
30
EPA / Rush
13
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
6
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
7
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
27
4th Down Efficiency
23
11
RZ Efficiency
14
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-3
L
L
U
12/03
-6
L
L
U
12/07
3
W
W
O
12/17
-10
L
P
O
12/24
3
W
W
O
12/31
-6
L
W
O
01/07
-14
L
L
U
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
-3
L
W
O
09/19
-21
L
L
U
SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
16
W
W
O
12/25
-14
L
L
O
12/31
17
W
W
U
01/07
-1
L
L
O
01/20
3
W
L
U
01/28
3
W
L
O
02/11
-3
L
L
P
09/09
13
W
W
O
09/15
-6
L
L
U
09/22
-3
L
L
O