NEPatriots
7-2
30
TBD
Levi's Stadium
64°F
6 mph
17
SF49ers
1-8
TBD
Levi's Stadium
64°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
6
7
0
17
30
49ers
3
7
0
7
17
Spread
-12
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
444
299
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
6.3
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.10
Passing Yards
273
177
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.02
Rushing Yards
171
122
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-29
Sack EPA
-1.14
-6.86
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
40
63
Penalty EPA
-4.35
-8.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-12.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market83.8%
Model83.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-274
Home nfelo
1,351
Away nfelo
1,673
Home Field
+97.6
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-49.2
Home QB Adjustment
+14.3
Away QB Adjustment
+63.4
Market Regression
+15.9
Final Difference
-285.5
Model Spread
+12.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+63.4
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
32
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32
EPA
EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
2
29
EPA / Rush
16
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
3
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
14
5
Turnover EPA / Game
31
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
22
RZ Efficiency
8
28
49ers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
1
Yards / Game
31
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
3
EPA
EPA / Play
29
5
EPA / Pass
30
8
EPA / Rush
10
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
27
Interceptions / Game
11
12
Fumbles / Game
29
10
Turnover EPA / Game
9
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
4
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U