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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ 49ers week 11, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NE logo
NEPatriots
7-2
30
TBD
Levi's Stadium
64°F
6 mph
17
SF49ers
1-8
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
64°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
6
7
0
17
30
49ers
3
7
0
7
17

Spread

NE logo
-12

Total

UNDER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
444
299
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
6.3
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.10
Passing Yards
273
177
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.02
Rushing Yards
171
122
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-29
Sack EPA
-1.14
-6.86
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
40
63
Penalty EPA
-4.35
-8.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-12.0
Model
-12.0

Win Probability

Market83.8%
Model83.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-271
Home nfelo
1,349
Away nfelo
1,670
Home Field
+98.9
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
-49.2
Home QB Adjustment
+14.3
Away QB Adjustment
+63.4
Market Regression
+14.7
Final Difference
-285.5
Model Spread
+12.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+63.4
Value
Ptile
12/20
1.8
63
12/27
-0.1
49
01/03
-6.1
11
01/16
9.9
97
01/24
-6.4
9
10/09
10.4
97
10/16
9.1
95
10/23
4.3
81
10/30
6.8
89
11/13
0.4
52
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Value
Ptile
09/27
-10.6
1
10/04
-7.4
6
10/11
3.7
77
10/18
2.3
66
10/22
-9.7
2
11/01
-5.8
12
10/16
-0.1
47
10/23
-4.0
19
11/06
4.5
81
11/13
2.8
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs 49ers Defense
Patriots logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
32
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32

EPA

EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
2
29
EPA / Rush
16
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
3
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
14
5
Turnover EPA / Game
31
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
22
RZ Efficiency
8
28
49ers Offense vs Patriots Defense
49ers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
26
1
Yards / Game
31
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
3

EPA

EPA / Play
29
5
EPA / Pass
30
8
EPA / Rush
10
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
27
Interceptions / Game
11
12
Fumbles / Game
29
10
Turnover EPA / Game
9
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
4
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/24
-2
L
L
U
09/11
2
W
W
U
09/18
7
W
W
O
09/22
27
W
W
U
10/02
-16
L
L
U
10/09
20
W
W
U
10/16
18
W
W
O
10/23
11
W
W
U
10/30
16
W
W
O
11/13
-7
L
L
O
SF logo

49ers

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
3
W
W
U
09/12
28
W
W
U
09/18
-19
L
L
O
09/25
-19
L
L
O
10/02
-7
L
L
U
10/06
-12
L
L
O
10/16
-29
L
L
O
10/23
-17
L
L
O
11/06
-18
L
L
O
11/13
-3
L
W
U