NEPatriots
4-2
38
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
9 mph
31
CHIBears
3-2
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
14
4
7
32
Bears
10
7
7
7
31
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
453
Total Plays
64
77
Yards / Play
6.0
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.05
Passing Yards
273
319
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
26/50(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.12
Rushing Yards
108
134
Rush Attempts
27
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
29
Passing 1st downs
15
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.00
-5.94
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-14
Sack EPA
-2.14
-3.11
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
64
40
Penalty EPA
-5.87
-4.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+19.2
Home QB Adjustment
+27.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.5
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+27.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
1
Yards / Game
4
3
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
1
EPA
EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
7
3
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
8
17
Turnover EPA / Game
27
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
19
17
RZ Efficiency
10
4
Bears Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
6
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
9
Rushing Yards / Game
14
7
EPA
EPA / Play
17
7
EPA / Pass
12
5
EPA / Rush
17
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
32
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
12
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U