NEPatriots
-
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
66°F
5 mph
10
CINBengals
-
TBD
Paycor Stadium
66°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
10
3
3
16
Bengals
0
0
7
3
10
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
224
Total Plays
64
48
Yards / Play
4.5
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.05
Passing Yards
120
154
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.37
Rushing Yards
170
70
Rush Attempts
39
16
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
6
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+5.49
-3.70
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-1
-10
Sack EPA
+0.19
-4.93
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
40
10
Penalty EPA
-4.46
-0.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+166
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,443
Home Field
+46.4
Base HFA
+46.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
25
Yards / Game
31
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
13
Rushing Yards / Game
14
19
EPA
EPA / Play
28
28
EPA / Pass
27
17
EPA / Rush
25
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
10
Interceptions / Game
11
9
Fumbles / Game
29
8
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Bengals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
21
Yards / Game
9
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
22
EPA
EPA / Play
6
26
EPA / Pass
5
30
EPA / Rush
14
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
6
Interceptions / Game
9
27
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
5
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U