NEPatriots
4-0
6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
68°F
7 mph
13
CINBengals
2-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
68°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
0
3
6
Bengals
0
3
3
7
13
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
341
Total Plays
60
70
Yards / Play
4.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.02
Passing Yards
166
179
Comp/Att
18/38(47%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.05
Rushing Yards
82
162
Rush Attempts
18
39
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
8%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.28
-7.72
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-31
-33
Sack EPA
-7.23
-6.02
Penalties
--
7
Penalty Yards
--
59
Penalty EPA
--
-7.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-55
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,663
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.3
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
+35.5
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
5
Yards / Game
6
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8
EPA
EPA / Play
3
3
EPA / Pass
8
3
EPA / Rush
13
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
5
8
Fumbles / Game
16
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
2
4th Down Efficiency
18
5
RZ Efficiency
8
13
Bengals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
10
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
18
28
EPA
EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
20
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
21
Interceptions / Game
26
10
Fumbles / Game
24
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
2
RZ Efficiency
1
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U