NEPatriots
1-0
40
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
7 mph
32
BUFBills
1-0
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
10
13
3
40
Bills
7
6
0
19
32
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
507
349
Total Plays
76
67
Yards / Play
6.7
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.05
Passing Yards
451
189
Comp/Att
38/59(64%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.23
Rushing Yards
56
160
Rush Attempts
15
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
30%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.19
-6.46
Sacks
2
8
Sack Yards
-15
-53
Sack EPA
-6.28
-12.82
Penalties
11
14
Penalty Yards
119
140
Penalty EPA
-8.98
-5.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model42.1%
Spread Pick
Patriots+1.5
Expected Value
+7.6%
Cover Probability
56.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-131
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,634
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-62.6
Home QB Adjustment
-44.2
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
+17.0
Final Difference
-55.4
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-44.2
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16
EPA
EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
6
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
23
4th Down Efficiency
7
1
RZ Efficiency
4
17
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
13
8
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
2
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
14
Interceptions / Game
5
24
Fumbles / Game
11
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
16
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U