NEPatriots
2-0
31
TBD
New Era Field
78°F
8 mph
34
BUFBills
2-0
TBD
New Era Field
78°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
7
3
7
31
Bills
0
10
7
11
28
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
495
448
Total Plays
71
60
Yards / Play
7.0
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.14
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.23
Rushing Yards
108
79
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
24
Passing 1st downs
21
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
4
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-21.27
-8.34
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
93
77
Penalty EPA
-10.72
-6.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
Patriots-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-225
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,707
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.5
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
+34.0
Market Regression
+38.0
Final Difference
-184.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+34.0
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
3
21
EPA / Rush
4
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
32
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
11
12
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
11
Yards / Game
14
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
19
EPA
EPA / Play
17
27
EPA / Pass
19
27
EPA / Rush
6
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
31
4
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
28
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
9-1
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U