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  1. nfelo...
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  3. patriots @ bills week 3, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NE logo
NEPatriots
2-0
31
TBD
New Era Field
78°F
8 mph
34
BUFBills
2-0
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
78°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
7
3
7
31
Bills
0
10
7
11
28

Spread

BUF logo
+7

Total

OVER
54

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
495
448
Total Plays
71
60
Yards / Play
7.0
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.14
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.23
Rushing Yards
108
79
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
30
24
Passing 1st downs
21
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
4
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-21.27
-8.34
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
93
77
Penalty EPA
-10.72
-6.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model74.3%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-221
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,706
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.5
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
+34.0
Market Regression
+38.8
Final Difference
-184.1
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+34.0
Value
Ptile
11/21
2.8
68
11/25
10.2
98
12/06
9.1
96
12/12
6.4
88
12/19
0.7
52
12/26
2.4
65
01/02
4.0
76
01/16
0.5
52
09/12
13.5
99
09/18
12.5
98
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Value
Ptile
11/07
0.5
52
11/14
-2.5
32
11/21
6.0
87
11/28
-2.0
36
12/05
-2.7
30
12/12
1.8
60
12/19
2.0
62
12/26
-8.4
6
09/11
6.5
88
09/18
6.7
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28

EPA

EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
3
21
EPA / Rush
4
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
32
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
11
12
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
13
11
Yards / Game
14
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
19

EPA

EPA / Play
17
27
EPA / Pass
19
27
EPA / Rush
6
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
31
4
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
28
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
11
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
3
W
L
O
11/25
21
W
W
O
12/06
42
W
W
O
12/12
29
W
W
O
12/19
4
W
L
O
12/26
31
W
W
U
01/02
31
W
W
O
01/16
-7
L
L
O
09/12
14
W
W
O
09/18
14
W
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
2
W
W
U
11/21
18
W
W
O
11/28
-3
L
W
U
12/05
-24
L
L
O
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/19
3
W
W
U
12/26
-31
L
L
U
01/02
-31
L
L
O
09/11
34
W
W
O
09/18
3
W
L
O