NEPatriots
2-0
31
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
13 mph
17
BUFBills
0-2
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
10
7
0
8
25
Bills
10
7
0
0
17
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
337
Total Plays
56
63
Yards / Play
7.1
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.35
+0.03
Passing Yards
--
199
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.69
-0.39
Rushing Yards
99
138
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
45%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.24
-14.38
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-48
Sack EPA
--
-15.10
Penalties
10
11
Penalty Yards
77
94
Penalty EPA
-7.41
-10.13
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
8
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6
EPA
EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
5
2
EPA / Rush
10
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
13
Interceptions / Game
6
2
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
30
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
25
9
Passing Yards / Game
23
16
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5
EPA
EPA / Play
20
9
EPA / Pass
20
8
EPA / Rush
25
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
18
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
22
4th Down Efficiency
19
14
RZ Efficiency
28
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
10-0
SU
7-2-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Bills
2-8
SU
4-4-2
ATS
0-0-10
O/U