NEPatriots
3-0
16
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
10 mph
10
BUFBills
3-0
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
0
3
0
10
Bills
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
224
375
Total Plays
62
71
Yards / Play
3.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.36
Passing Yards
--
240
Comp/Att
18/39(46%)
22/44(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.45
Rushing Yards
74
135
Rush Attempts
23
22
Yards / Rush
3.2
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
23
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
28%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.34
-14.35
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-40
Sack EPA
--
-7.95
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
58
76
Penalty EPA
-10.35
-8.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-210
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,705
Home Field
+50.3
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.3
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.4
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
11
EPA
EPA / Play
16
4
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
14
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
19
Interceptions / Game
10
12
Fumbles / Game
15
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
26
6
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
1
Yards / Game
24
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8
EPA
EPA / Play
20
1
EPA / Pass
21
1
EPA / Rush
10
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
15
1
Fumbles / Game
15
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
22
6
RZ Efficiency
20
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U