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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ bills week 8, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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NE logo
NEPatriots
6-1
41
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
9 mph
25
BUFBills
4-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
10
14
3
41
Bills
3
7
7
8
25

Spread

NE logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
357
378
Total Plays
61
69
Yards / Play
5.9
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.43
+0.05
Passing Yards
285
211
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
20/41(49%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.61
-0.24
Rushing Yards
72
167
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.45
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
6
6
3rd Down %
69%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-30
-9
Sack EPA
-7.48
-2.79
Penalties
10
12
Penalty Yards
116
84
Penalty EPA
-12.26
-12.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model70.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-118
Home nfelo
1,568
Away nfelo
1,655
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-63.7
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+70.0
Market Regression
-23.6
Final Difference
-150.6
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+70.0
Value
Ptile
12/06
-1.7
37
12/13
2.2
66
12/20
1.8
63
12/27
-0.1
49
01/03
-6.1
11
01/16
9.9
97
01/24
-6.4
9
10/09
10.4
97
10/16
9.1
95
10/23
4.3
81
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Value
Ptile
12/20
1.9
64
12/27
-2.6
32
01/03
2.7
71
09/11
-4.4
17
09/15
6.7
89
09/25
-2.4
31
10/02
3.0
72
10/09
-1.9
35
10/16
3.0
73
10/23
-0.9
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
3
16
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
8
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29

EPA

EPA / Play
2
16
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
16
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
4
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
14
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
6
RZ Efficiency
8
11
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
10
1
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
1
3

EPA

EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
1
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
27
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
2
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
10
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-10
L
L
U
01/16
7
W
W
O
01/24
-2
L
L
U
09/11
2
W
W
U
09/18
7
W
W
O
09/22
27
W
W
U
10/02
-16
L
L
U
10/09
20
W
W
U
10/16
18
W
W
O
10/23
11
W
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-10
L
L
O
12/27
10
W
W
U
01/03
5
W
W
U
09/11
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-6
L
L
O
09/25
15
W
W
O
10/02
16
W
W
U
10/09
11
W
W
O
10/16
29
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
O