NEPatriots
6-1
41
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
9 mph
25
BUFBills
4-3
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
10
14
3
41
Bills
3
7
7
8
25
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
378
Total Plays
61
69
Yards / Play
5.9
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.43
+0.05
Passing Yards
285
211
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
20/41(49%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.61
-0.24
Rushing Yards
72
167
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
6
6
3rd Down %
69%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-30
-9
Sack EPA
-7.48
-2.79
Penalties
10
12
Penalty Yards
116
84
Penalty EPA
-12.26
-12.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model69.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-115
Home nfelo
1,573
Away nfelo
1,657
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-63.7
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+70.0
Market Regression
-15.3
Final Difference
-142.3
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+70.0
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
16
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
8
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29
EPA
EPA / Play
2
16
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
16
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
4
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
14
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
6
RZ Efficiency
8
11
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
1
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
1
3
EPA
EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
27
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
2
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
10
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U