NEPatriots
5-2
25
TBD
New Era Field
46°F
16 mph
6
BUFBills
2-5
TBD
New Era Field
46°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
6
3
7
19
Bills
0
3
3
0
6
Spread
-14
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
333
Total Plays
73
63
Yards / Play
5.3
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.38
Passing Yards
311
287
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.40
Rushing Yards
76
46
Rush Attempts
25
19
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-15.23
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-26
Sack EPA
-2.56
-8.67
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
33
51
Penalty EPA
-3.04
-2.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.0%
Model87.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-303
Home nfelo
1,309
Away nfelo
1,630
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.5
Home QB Adjustment
-3.1
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
-26.2
Final Difference
-330.2
Model Spread
+14.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
D. Anderson
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
19
Yards / Game
4
2
Passing Yards / Game
25
1
Rushing Yards / Game
5
15
EPA
EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
7
2
EPA / Rush
6
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
12
7
Fumbles / Game
8
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
10
30
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
32
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
7
EPA
EPA / Play
31
7
EPA / Pass
31
5
EPA / Rush
20
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
32
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
4
RZ Efficiency
16
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U