NEPatriots
2-4
21
TBD
New Era Field
41°F
17 mph
24
BUFBills
5-2
TBD
New Era Field
41°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
6
8
7
21
Bills
7
0
7
10
24
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
339
Total Plays
62
57
Yards / Play
5.7
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.14
Passing Yards
163
149
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
11/18(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.06
Rushing Yards
188
190
Rush Attempts
34
38
Yards / Rush
5.5
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.70
-3.70
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-5
Sack EPA
-3.09
-1.55
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
35
30
Penalty EPA
-4.08
-4.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model57.7%
Spread Pick
Patriots+4.5
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.2
Home QB Adjustment
+23.7
Away QB Adjustment
-6.5
Market Regression
+4.1
Final Difference
53.9
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
14
Yards / Game
26
18
Passing Yards / Game
28
13
Rushing Yards / Game
3
20
EPA
EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
4
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
23
12
Fumbles / Game
5
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
19
4th Down Efficiency
23
16
RZ Efficiency
24
17
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
8
Yards / Game
5
14
Passing Yards / Game
6
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
3
16
EPA / Rush
16
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
14
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
17
RZ Efficiency
12
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U