NEPatriots
3-4
38
TBD
New Era Field
40°F
3 mph
7
BUFBills
5-3
TBD
New Era Field
40°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
10
14
7
38
Bills
0
7
0
0
7
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
331
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
6.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.46
-0.10
Passing Yards
263
266
Comp/Att
22/26(85%)
28/45(62%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.99
-0.04
Rushing Yards
159
65
Rush Attempts
36
13
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
28
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
67%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
80%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.41
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-2
-36
Sack EPA
-0.81
-4.98
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
59
59
Penalty EPA
-4.27
-5.64
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
27
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
21
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
29
EPA
EPA / Play
10
26
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
16
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
2
Interceptions / Game
9
26
Fumbles / Game
5
24
Turnover EPA / Game
26
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
16
32
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
15
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
31
EPA
EPA / Play
11
19
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
22
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
23
Interceptions / Game
12
12
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
26
4th Down Efficiency
11
27
RZ Efficiency
15
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U