NEPatriots
9-0
56
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
10 mph
10
BUFBills
5-4
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
21
7
8
50
Bills
7
0
3
0
10
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
510
229
Total Plays
70
49
Yards / Play
7.3
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.57
-0.25
Passing Yards
--
151
Comp/Att
33/41(80%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.89
-0.60
Rushing Yards
127
78
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
14
Passing 1st downs
21
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
73%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
100%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
6
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.59
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
--
-4.85
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
37
--
Penalty EPA
-5.72
--
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
18
Yards / Game
1
31
Passing Yards / Game
8
18
Rushing Yards / Game
11
25
EPA
EPA / Play
1
27
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
2
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
23
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
29
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
2
4
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
9
EPA
EPA / Play
24
12
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
16
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
24
Interceptions / Game
6
6
Fumbles / Game
8
17
Turnover EPA / Game
27
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
25
RZ Efficiency
30
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
0-0-10
O/U