NEPatriots
6-4
7
TBD
New Era Field
40°F
17 mph
17
BUFBills
7-4
TBD
New Era Field
40°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
0
0
7
7
Bills
3
7
7
0
17
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
299
Total Plays
64
51
Yards / Play
4.2
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.00
Passing Yards
174
--
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
9/16(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.66
Rushing Yards
93
92
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.49
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
23%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.11
-4.34
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-7.37
--
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
101
39
Penalty EPA
-9.45
-4.15
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
18
1
Passing Yards / Game
4
1
Rushing Yards / Game
22
5
EPA
EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
24
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
26
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
12
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
27
5
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
5
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20
EPA
EPA / Play
12
8
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
18
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
3
Interceptions / Game
8
18
Fumbles / Game
10
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
16
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U