NEPatriots
9-2
23
TBD
New Era Field
48°F
13 mph
3
BUFBills
6-5
TBD
New Era Field
48°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
6
14
0
23
Bills
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
435
268
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
6.4
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.25
Passing Yards
244
85
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
15/34(44%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
2.5
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.78
Rushing Yards
191
183
Rush Attempts
35
26
Yards / Rush
5.5
7.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
15
3
Rushing 1st downs
8
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.11
-5.27
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-14
-30
Sack EPA
-3.12
-5.48
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
66
34
Penalty EPA
-8.16
+0.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-209
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,697
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.1
Market Regression
+12.2
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
16
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
29
EPA
EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
8
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
2
7
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
7
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
5
20
EPA
EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
22
24
EPA / Rush
13
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
21
Interceptions / Game
12
22
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
22
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U