NEPatriots
8-4
14
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
27 mph
10
BUFBills
7-4
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
27 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
8
3
0
3
14
Bills
7
0
3
0
10
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
243
230
Total Plays
50
57
Yards / Play
4.9
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
131
Comp/Att
2/3(67%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.24
Rushing Yards
224
99
Rush Attempts
47
25
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
16
Passing 1st downs
1
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
17%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
+1.07
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.02
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
47
--
Penalty EPA
-6.44
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,691
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+21.1
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
16
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
6
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
15
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
5
7
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
24
EPA
EPA / Play
2
5
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
1
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
30
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
10
16
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
16
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U