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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ bills week 13, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NE logo
NEPatriots
8-4
14
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
27 mph
10
BUFBills
7-4
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
27 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
8
3
0
3
14
Bills
7
0
3
0
10

Spread

NE logo
+3

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
243
230
Total Plays
50
57
Yards / Play
4.9
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
131
Comp/Att
2/3(67%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.24
Rushing Yards
224
99
Rush Attempts
47
25
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
11
16
Passing 1st downs
1
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
17%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
+1.07
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.02
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
47
--
Penalty EPA
-6.44
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,693
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+21.6
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
-17.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Value
Ptile
09/26
-3.6
26
10/03
-0.3
50
10/10
-1.1
45
10/17
-1.6
41
10/24
4.3
81
10/31
-2.8
32
11/07
-5.1
19
11/14
3.0
76
11/18
-5.2
19
11/28
3.8
79
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Value
Ptile
09/19
-1.5
42
09/26
13.9
99
10/03
2.1
69
10/10
9.6
96
10/18
4.9
83
10/31
8.9
95
11/07
-5.3
17
11/14
2.3
70
11/21
-2.4
35
11/25
5.8
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
16

EPA

EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
9
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
6
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
15
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
5
7
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
24

EPA

EPA / Play
2
5
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
1
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
30
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
10
16
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
16
RZ Efficiency
2
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-15
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
U
10/10
3
W
L
O
10/17
-6
L
L
O
10/24
41
W
W
O
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/07
18
W
W
U
11/14
38
W
W
O
11/18
25
W
W
U
11/28
23
W
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
35
W
W
U
09/26
22
W
W
O
10/03
40
W
W
U
10/10
18
W
W
O
10/18
-3
L
L
O
10/31
15
W
P
U
11/07
-3
L
L
U
11/14
28
W
W
O
11/21
-26
L
L
O
11/25
25
W
W
U