NEPatriots
10-7
17
TBD
New Era Field
7°F
8 mph
47
BUFBills
11-6
TBD
New Era Field
7°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
7
7
17
Bills
14
13
6
14
47
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
482
Total Plays
61
54
Yards / Play
5.0
8.9
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.67
Passing Yards
216
--
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
21/25(84%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.92
Rushing Yards
89
174
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.56
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
86%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
7
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
6
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.67
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-4.17
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
34
47
Penalty EPA
-2.99
-6.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,692
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
16
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
6
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
15
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
5
7
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
24
EPA
EPA / Play
2
5
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
1
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
30
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
10
16
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
16
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U