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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ broncos week 5, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NE logo
NEPatriots
3-1
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
30°F
4 mph
20
DENBroncos
4-0
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
30°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Patriots
10
7
0
0
0
17
Broncos
0
7
3
7
3
20

Spread

DEN logo
+3

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
305
424
Total Plays
61
75
Yards / Play
5.0
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.05
Passing Yards
209
321
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
35/48(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.25
Rushing Yards
96
103
Rush Attempts
27
25
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
18
27
Passing 1st downs
11
21
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.76
-4.45
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-9
Sack EPA
-3.76
-2.10
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
46
20
Penalty EPA
-4.81
-5.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-11
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,610
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-23.7
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.4
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Value
Ptile
12/23
-1.5
38
12/29
10.4
96
01/12
10.8
97
01/20
-1.9
36
02/03
-0.5
46
09/07
-2.1
35
09/14
9.4
95
09/20
-3.4
28
09/27
3.3
72
10/04
4.3
78
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Value
Ptile
11/23
-1.5
40
11/30
-9.2
3
12/07
0.5
55
12/11
-3.5
25
12/22
-7.7
7
12/28
3.8
77
09/13
-0.0
49
09/20
2.2
65
09/27
0.6
54
10/04
2.5
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Patriots logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
6
11
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
14
26

EPA

EPA / Play
6
12
EPA / Pass
9
6
EPA / Rush
11
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
11
14
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Broncos logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
20
6
Yards / Game
15
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
18
19

EPA

EPA / Play
18
10
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
18
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
29
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
22
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
20
W
W
P
11/30
-23
L
L
P
12/07
3
W
L
P
12/14
23
W
W
P
12/21
40
W
W
P
12/28
13
W
W
P
09/14
1
W
L
O
09/20
-7
L
L
U
09/27
16
W
W
U
10/04
6
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-21
L
L
P
11/30
17
W
W
P
12/07
7
W
L
P
12/14
-20
L
L
P
12/21
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-31
L
L
P
09/13
5
W
W
U
09/20
21
W
W
U
09/27
20
W
W
U
10/04
7
W
W
U