NEPatriots
3-1
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
30°F
4 mph
20
DENBroncos
4-0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
30°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Patriots
10
7
0
0
0
17
Broncos
0
7
3
7
3
20
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
424
Total Plays
61
75
Yards / Play
5.0
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.05
Passing Yards
209
321
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
35/48(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.25
Rushing Yards
96
103
Rush Attempts
27
25
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
27
Passing 1st downs
11
21
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.76
-4.45
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-9
Sack EPA
-3.76
-2.10
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
46
20
Penalty EPA
-4.81
-5.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
Broncos+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-11
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,610
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-23.7
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.5
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
11
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
14
26
EPA
EPA / Play
6
12
EPA / Pass
9
6
EPA / Rush
11
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
11
14
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
6
Yards / Game
15
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
18
19
EPA
EPA / Play
18
10
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
18
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
29
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
22
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-4-6
O/U