NEPatriots
11-2
16
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
18°F
9 mph
3
DENBroncos
8-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
18°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
7
3
3
16
Broncos
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
309
Total Plays
73
61
Yards / Play
4.3
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.28
Passing Yards
177
251
Comp/Att
16/32(50%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.41
Rushing Yards
136
58
Rush Attempts
39
17
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
29%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+5.28
-7.95
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-31
Sack EPA
-3.16
-7.69
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
30
49
Penalty EPA
-4.86
-5.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-38
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,657
Home Field
+97.9
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-45.1
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
+59.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+59.7
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
4
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28
EPA
EPA / Play
2
1
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
16
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
9
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
14
2
Turnover EPA / Game
31
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
5
4th Down Efficiency
6
8
RZ Efficiency
8
9
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
1
Yards / Game
27
8
Passing Yards / Game
19
6
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3
EPA
EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
23
8
EPA / Rush
30
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
27
Interceptions / Game
12
12
Fumbles / Game
31
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
4
4th Down Efficiency
11
7
RZ Efficiency
27
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U