NEPatriots
4-2
35
TBD
Wembley Stadium
59°F
16 mph
7
TBBuccaneers
0-6
TBD
Wembley Stadium
59°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
8
7
7
7
29
Buccaneers
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
-15.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
414
240
Total Plays
61
59
Yards / Play
6.8
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.44
Passing Yards
307
151
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
11/30(37%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.57
Rushing Yards
107
89
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
10
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.78
-12.78
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-1
-21
Sack EPA
-0.23
-6.68
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-2.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-15.5
Model
-15.0
Win Probability
Market89.1%
Model88.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-322
Home nfelo
1,373
Away nfelo
1,646
Home Field
+21.8
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-70.9
Home QB Adjustment
-42.9
Away QB Adjustment
+28.0
Market Regression
-3.4
Final Difference
-356.2
Model Spread
+15.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.0
J. Johnson
Proj. Value
-4.7
Team Elo Adj
-42.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
4
26
Passing Yards / Game
17
11
Rushing Yards / Game
14
32
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
9
22
EPA / Rush
11
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
15
9
Fumbles / Game
18
23
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
23
4th Down Efficiency
13
26
RZ Efficiency
11
14
Buccaneers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
28
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
18
Rushing Yards / Game
22
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
28
14
EPA / Rush
24
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
31
11
Fumbles / Game
2
27
Turnover EPA / Game
4
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
23
14
RZ Efficiency
14
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-3-4
O/U
Buccaneers
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
4-2-4
O/U