NEPatriots
9-3
23
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
67°F
7 mph
14
LACChargers
8-4
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
67°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
10
0
10
23
Chargers
0
8
0
0
8
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
216
Total Plays
73
54
Yards / Play
5.4
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.31
Passing Yards
310
163
Comp/Att
28/44(64%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.22
Rushing Yards
87
53
Rush Attempts
28
17
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
13
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
44%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.70
-3.91
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-26
Sack EPA
-2.71
-6.89
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
70
61
Penalty EPA
-5.16
-5.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model57.2%
Spread Pick
Chargers+4.0
Expected Value
+14.6%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-3
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,640
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-20.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.8
Away QB Adjustment
+26.5
Market Regression
-13.6
Final Difference
-50.6
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.5
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
12
Yards / Game
10
10
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25
EPA
EPA / Play
1
23
EPA / Pass
4
21
EPA / Rush
5
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
16
Interceptions / Game
6
28
Fumbles / Game
3
6
Turnover EPA / Game
30
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
5
14
Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
8
Yards / Game
19
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
21
Rushing Yards / Game
30
13
EPA
EPA / Play
12
9
EPA / Pass
7
11
EPA / Rush
27
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
26
10
Fumbles / Game
2
23
Turnover EPA / Game
23
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U