nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ chiefs week 4, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NE logo
NEPatriots
2-1
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
82°F
3 mph
41
KCChiefs
1-2
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
82°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
0
7
7
14
Chiefs
7
10
10
8
35

Spread

KC logo
+3

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
290
443
Total Plays
49
66
Yards / Play
5.9
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.23
Passing Yards
215
236
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.53
Rushing Yards
75
207
Rush Attempts
16
38
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
13
26
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
22%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.23
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-14
-12
Sack EPA
-7.39
-2.24
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
30
35
Penalty EPA
-1.65
+4.98

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model54.3%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+5
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-8.5
Market Regression
+8.9
Final Difference
-29.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Value
Ptile
12/01
6.7
89
12/08
2.6
68
12/15
5.3
84
12/22
-1.9
40
12/29
-2.9
33
01/11
-4.4
22
01/19
4.1
78
09/07
-3.8
27
09/14
-1.4
40
09/21
-1.4
41
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
11/17
1.1
57
11/24
1.7
62
12/01
6.6
88
12/08
1.6
61
12/15
9.5
95
12/22
-6.7
12
01/04
12.7
99
09/07
-7.8
8
09/14
1.4
60
09/21
1.6
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Patriots logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
1
2
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28

EPA

EPA / Play
1
12
EPA / Pass
4
8
EPA / Rush
5
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
7
Interceptions / Game
6
30
Fumbles / Game
3
25
Turnover EPA / Game
30
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
5
1
Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
15
8
Yards / Game
25
12
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
11
13

EPA

EPA / Play
9
9
EPA / Pass
12
11
EPA / Rush
4
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
1
10
Fumbles / Game
22
23
Turnover EPA / Game
32
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
12
RZ Efficiency
9
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
3
W
L
O
12/08
1
W
L
O
12/15
-4
L
L
U
12/22
34
W
W
O
12/29
14
W
W
O
01/11
21
W
W
O
01/19
-10
L
L
U
09/07
-13
L
L
O
09/14
23
W
W
U
09/21
7
W
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
-7
L
L
O
12/08
35
W
W
O
12/15
25
W
W
O
12/22
-16
L
L
U
12/29
-3
L
W
O
01/04
-1
L
L
O
09/07
-16
L
L
U
09/14
-7
L
W
U
09/21
19
W
W
O