NEPatriots
2-1
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
82°F
3 mph
41
KCChiefs
1-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
82°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
0
7
7
14
Chiefs
7
10
10
8
35
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
443
Total Plays
49
66
Yards / Play
5.9
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.23
Passing Yards
215
236
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.53
Rushing Yards
75
207
Rush Attempts
16
38
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
26
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
22%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.23
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-14
-12
Sack EPA
-7.39
-2.24
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
30
35
Penalty EPA
-1.65
+4.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model54.1%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-8.5
Market Regression
+8.8
Final Difference
-28.8
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
2
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
12
EPA / Pass
4
8
EPA / Rush
5
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
7
Interceptions / Game
6
30
Fumbles / Game
3
25
Turnover EPA / Game
30
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
5
1
Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
8
Yards / Game
25
12
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
11
13
EPA
EPA / Play
9
9
EPA / Pass
12
11
EPA / Rush
4
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
1
10
Fumbles / Game
22
23
Turnover EPA / Game
32
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
12
RZ Efficiency
9
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U