NEPatriots
8-1
27
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
45°F
5 mph
19
KCChiefs
3-6
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
45°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
10
7
3
27
Chiefs
10
0
3
6
19
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
407
417
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
6.9
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.39
+0.16
Passing Yards
309
353
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
11.9
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.89
+0.25
Rushing Yards
98
64
Rush Attempts
32
20
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
67%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.21
-2.88
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-28
Sack EPA
-1.38
-6.45
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-7.34
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
9
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13
EPA
EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
10
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
20
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
19
4th Down Efficiency
21
5
RZ Efficiency
7
28
Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
2
Yards / Game
1
9
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
4
5
EPA
EPA / Play
2
9
EPA / Pass
4
8
EPA / Rush
1
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
24
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
1
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
6-2-2
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Chiefs
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
0-0-10
O/U