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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ colts week 6, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NE logo
NEPatriots
4-0
34
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
27
INDColts
3-2
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
13
7
7
34
Colts
7
8
0
6
21

Spread

IND logo
+8.5

Total

OVER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
417
409
Total Plays
64
75
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.01
Passing Yards
301
289
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
30/50(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.04
Rushing Yards
116
120
Rush Attempts
25
22
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
42%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.45
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-23
Sack EPA
-2.94
-5.97
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
72
103
Penalty EPA
-6.68
-10.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market77.4%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts+8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.1%
Cover Probability
59.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-132
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,664
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+25.4
Market Regression
-0.0
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+25.4
Value
Ptile
12/14
4.2
78
12/21
-5.4
17
12/28
-3.3
28
01/10
7.6
90
01/18
3.7
75
02/01
8.6
93
09/10
7.3
92
09/20
10.6
97
09/27
7.8
93
10/11
2.0
65
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Value
Ptile
12/07
-0.6
46
12/14
-2.6
31
12/21
-6.8
12
12/28
0.6
54
01/04
8.1
91
01/11
2.5
68
01/18
-9.3
5
09/13
-1.7
38
09/21
-2.6
32
09/27
-1.9
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Patriots logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
9
27
Passing Yards / Game
5
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
25

EPA

EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
4
18
EPA / Rush
6
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
15
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
30
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Colts logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
20
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
10

EPA

EPA / Play
27
10
EPA / Pass
25
12
EPA / Rush
32
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
28
24
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
12
RZ Efficiency
20
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
28
W
W
O
12/21
1
W
L
U
12/28
-8
L
L
U
01/10
4
W
L
O
01/18
38
W
W
P
02/01
4
W
W
O
09/10
7
W
L
U
09/20
8
W
W
O
09/27
34
W
W
O
10/11
24
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
-35
L
L
U
12/28
17
W
W
U
01/04
16
W
W
U
01/11
11
W
W
U
01/18
-38
L
L
P
09/13
-13
L
L
U
09/21
-13
L
L
U
09/27
2
W
L
O
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/08
7
W
W
O