NEPatriots
4-0
34
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
3-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
13
7
7
34
Colts
7
8
0
6
21
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
417
409
Total Plays
64
75
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.01
Passing Yards
301
289
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
30/50(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.04
Rushing Yards
116
120
Rush Attempts
25
22
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
42%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.45
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-23
Sack EPA
-2.94
-5.97
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
72
103
Penalty EPA
-6.68
-10.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model72.6%
Spread Pick
Colts+8.5
Expected Value
+14.1%
Cover Probability
59.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-128
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,664
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+25.4
Market Regression
-3.8
Final Difference
-168.9
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+25.4
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
9
27
Passing Yards / Game
5
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
25
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
4
18
EPA / Rush
6
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
15
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
30
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
20
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
10
EPA
EPA / Play
27
10
EPA / Pass
25
12
EPA / Rush
32
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
28
24
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
12
RZ Efficiency
20
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U