NEPatriots
6-2
34
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
035
INDColts
8-0
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
17
0
10
34
Colts
7
7
0
21
35
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
477
407
Total Plays
72
63
Yards / Play
6.6
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.11
Passing Yards
364
316
Comp/Att
29/42(69%)
28/44(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.19
Rushing Yards
113
91
Rush Attempts
28
18
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
17
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.87
-6.50
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-11
Sack EPA
-2.44
-2.29
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
72
--
Penalty EPA
-2.64
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,630
Away nfelo
1,661
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+21.0
Away QB Adjustment
+24.0
Market Regression
-13.3
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
4
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
17
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20
EPA
EPA / Play
6
17
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
11
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
15
15
Fumbles / Game
18
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
13
2
RZ Efficiency
11
13
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
8
9
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
32
19
EPA
EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
4
14
EPA / Rush
27
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
29
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
1
27
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
13
14
RZ Efficiency
2
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-5-2
O/U
Colts
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
3-5-2
O/U